Can we get clarification on how this resolves with house arrest?
Arbitrage opportunity https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
@mudPi314 That question has only a 21% chance of 'never', BUT makes it explicit that house arrest will count if it happens after a conviction. This question doesn't make it explicit, but the obvious reading of it would be that house arrest would not count. If you think there's a ~25% chance that Trump will be sentenced to only house arrest, there's no arbitrage potential.
@AndrewHyer Yes that is correct I think. Oops. https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre-fca8baf1274c
@meefburger Those terms are not very precise, but being detained in jail prior to trial will not resolve this YES; being incarcerated due to serving a prison sentences after being found guilty of a crime will.