Will the wayward Falcon 9 booster hit the moon on March 4th?

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There's that wandering booster that's supposed to crash into the moon. Will it? And, will it be on March 4th, as predicted?
#space #moon #science #fun
Jan 26, 5:11pm: https://www.space.com/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-hit-moon-march-2022
Feb 13, 10:14am: This will resolve yes even if the booster in questions is not a Falcon. Just as long as /some/ booster hits the moon.

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At this point tracking data is pretty much sufficient; I'll check to see if they can identify the crater after impact, but the question is when, not where, so I won't delay market resolution more than 24 hours, and probably no even that long. Any event that could preclude impact on the moon once we stop tracking the object would be ridiculously unlikely and also probably observable.

How do you intend to confirm that the booster hit at the right time? Seems like the best evidence we will have for that, even after it hits, will be the orbital data already collected.

I put together a bet about this booster not only hitting the moon, but hitting a precise location on the moon within 4 seconds of precision, which might be a more interesting bet for folks since it's virtually guaranteed to hit the moon. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/using-the-selenographic-coordinate

This will resolve yes even if the booster in questions is not a Falcon. Just as long as /some/ booster hits the moon.

Let's say on the day of March 4th, but in any timezone. So, a very fuzzy March 4th.

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