Duncan avatar
Duncan
resolved Mar 7
Will the wayward Falcon 9 booster hit the moon on March 4th?
Resolved
YES
There's that wandering booster that's supposed to crash into the moon. Will it? And, will it be on March 4th, as predicted? #space #moon #science #fun Jan 26, 5:11pm: https://www.space.com/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-hit-moon-march-2022 Feb 13, 10:14am: This will resolve yes even if the booster in questions is not a Falcon. Just as long as /some/ booster hits the moon.

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Duncan avatar
Duncan
bought Ṁ1 of YES
At this point tracking data is pretty much sufficient; I'll check to see if they can identify the crater after impact, but the question is when, not where, so I won't delay market resolution more than 24 hours, and probably no even that long. Any event that could preclude impact on the moon once we stop tracking the object would be ridiculously unlikely and also probably observable.
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
bought Ṁ41 of YES
How do you intend to confirm that the booster hit at the right time? Seems like the best evidence we will have for that, even after it hits, will be the orbital data already collected.
PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney
bought Ṁ5 of YES
I put together a bet about this booster not only hitting the moon, but hitting a precise location on the moon within 4 seconds of precision, which might be a more interesting bet for folks since it's virtually guaranteed to hit the moon. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/using-the-selenographic-coordinate
Duncan avatar
Duncan
bought Ṁ7 of YES
This will resolve yes even if the booster in questions is not a Falcon. Just as long as /some/ booster hits the moon.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ15 of YES
Sounds fair!
Duncan avatar
Duncan
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Let's say on the day of March 4th, but in any timezone. So, a very fuzzy March 4th.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Hm, is this "on or before March 4th" or "exactly March 4th"?