Europe builds 5,000 km of operational hydrogen pipelines by 2033?
5
100Ṁ130
2032
24%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the total route-length of dedicated hydrogen pipelines that are operational in Europe exceeds 5,000 km at any point before January 1st 2033.

Definitions

  • Europe (for this market): Pipelines physically located within the territories of EU-27, the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. Cross-border pipelines count only for the portion inside these territories.

  • Dedicated hydrogen pipeline: A pipeline whose normal service is transporting gaseous hydrogen as the primary product (i.e., not a hydrogen–natural gas blend).

    • Counts: Newly built hydrogen pipelines and repurposed natural-gas pipelines once they are converted and operating in hydrogen service.

    • Does not count: Pipelines primarily carrying natural gas with hydrogen blending, or internal plant piping entirely within a single industrial site (e.g., behind the fence of one refinery/chemical plant).

  • Operational: The pipeline is commissioned and in service (or clearly stated by an authoritative operator/regulator to be in operation as part of the hydrogen transmission/distribution system), not merely planned, permitted, financed, or under construction.

How length is counted

  • Use route-kilometers (centerline length) of physical pipeline segments.

  • Count each physical segment once (no double-counting for parallel reporting).

Evidence standard and resolution sources

  • “Strong evidence” means an authoritative, public statement or dataset (for example: a national energy regulator, transmission system operator(s), an EU institution/observatory, or another widely recognized sector authority) that either:

    1. directly reports >5,000 km operational, or

    2. provides a pipeline list/map/status that clearly sums to >5,000 km operational.

Resolution

  • YES if the threshold is met before the deadline by the evidence standard above.

  • NO otherwise (including if evidence remains ambiguous or relies only on projections rather than operational status).

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