Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, at any time from market creation through 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, deliveries via the southern Druzhba pipeline to at least one of Slovakia, Hungary, or the Czech Republic are unplannedly halted (i.e., drop to zero receipts) for ≥7 consecutive calendar days. Reductions that do not reach zero do not count.

• “Unplanned” includes physical damage, contamination, cyberattack, sanctions/payment disputes, or force majeure. Excludes scheduled maintenance, mutually agreed/seasonal suspensions, or cases where buyers simply do not nominate volumes.

• Verification: any one official operator statement (e.g., Transpetrol, MERO, MOL) or two independent reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, S&P Global) confirming a 7+ day halt and its dates. Links for resolution checks:

  • Transpetrol (SK) updates: https://en.transpetrol.sk/

  • MERO ČR (CZ) news: https://mero.cz/en/category/news/

  • MOL Group investor news: https://molgroup.info/en/investor-relations/investor-news/

  • Example Reuters coverage of Druzhba outages: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-supplies-through-druzhba-pipeline-restart-after-attack-2025-08-28/

• Resolves NO if no such 7+ day zero-flow halt occurs by the deadline.

Background

• Druzhba is the Soviet-era crude pipeline feeding Central Europe; its southern branch runs via Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. Large, multi-day stoppages have occurred before: the 2019 organic-chloride contamination halted flows for weeks across branches, and in August 2022 a sanctions-related transit-fee dispute stopped southern-branch flows for ~6–8 days before resuming. (pipeline-journal.net, interfax.com, euronews.com)

• Since 2024–2025, the line has seen repeated disruptions and repairs (e.g., leaks on the Polish section and, more recently, Ukrainian strikes on facilities feeding the southern branch that temporarily halted supplies to Hungary and Slovakia in August 2025 before resumption). (pern.pl, reuters.com)

• The Czech Republic is reducing dependence via the TAL+IKL route (targeting full coverage in 2025), while MOL (HU/SK) is adding optionality via the Adriatic (JANAF) route but expects full flexibility only around 2026. (reuters.com, spglobal.com)

Considerations

• Short (<7 days) stoppages have occurred; the 7-day threshold is intended to capture “major” disruptions while filtering routine hiccups and nomination issues. (tradingview.com)

• Escalation of cross-border attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in 2025 increases risk of week-long halts on the southern branch. (reuters.com)