Will the European continent see a second instalment of the Years of Lead?

Background

The Years of Lead refer to the historical period of the 60s to 80s characterized by political violence, left and right wing terrorism and social upheaval. While the concept generally refers to Italian history, the Rote Armee Fraktion and Action Directe phenomena in Germany and France respectively can be argued to characterize a similar period.

Criteria

• Resolves Yes if the following is fulfilled in 3+ countries of the European continent, including Russia before the Caucasus, excluding Turkey.

• Large (>100% from base rate, n>5) and statistically quantifiable rise in the rate of political violence qualifying event (see below) per year, picked up by reliable media sources, over a period of at least 2 consecutive years. Or at least one of the major event list. (So rate increase or major event, in at least 3 different countries)

• Qualifying events: terrorist attacks(<50 fatalities), riot with a political motive, violent clashes between proponent of different political ideology, political assassination and kidnapping, DDos/defacement/hacking of state-associated or political-group associated services/websites, destruction of state-associated building, formation of state-independant armed groups.

• Major event list: Terrorist attack (>50 fatalities), coup and attempted coup (that had a non-trivial chance to succeed), autogolpo, non-democratic regime change, martial law or similar state of exception triggered in response to one of the qualifying events.

• While the original years of lead had a clear right/left aspect, it is not required for this to resolves Yes. The opposition might be ecological, or religious, or economical, or AI acolyte vs technoluddite, or whatever

• Resolves No on 2030-04-01 if the criteria are not fullfilled.

It is of course difficult to pinpoint how future form of upheaval might manifest - therefore, I might temporary close the market to discuss resolution criteria (temporary trade halt), discuss in the comment, and resolve N/A if ambiguity still prevails. I am open to comments/suggestions about the resolution criteria , if raised well in advance of resolution.

This market is part of EuroFutureVibes series, trying to formalize vibes-based prediction about the european future(s).