Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Zach Lahn does not win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial general election held on November 3, 2026 (i.e., if another candidate is officially certified as the winner, or if Lahn ceases to be a candidate before or during the general election).

This market resolves to NO if Zach Lahn is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial general election.

Resolution will be determined based on official certification published by the Iowa Secretary of State. If official certification is pending or contested, resolution will be based on consensus race calls by major national news organizations (e.g., The Associated Press).

Background

Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds declined to run for a third full term in 2026, creating Iowa's first open gubernatorial race since 2006. Zach Lahn, a businessman and former political operative, won the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary. The Democratic nominee is Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand.