Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, during Donald Trump's second presidential administration, a federal executive branch agency or an appointed special counsel officially initiates a formal investigation (e.g., Department of Justice inquiry, FBI probe, or special counsel appointment) targeting members of Congress, congressional committees, or congressional staff of a Democratic-controlled chamber of the U.S. Congress regarding their official legislative or investigative actions (such as past impeachments, committee investigations, or subpoenas).

This market resolves NO if:

1. No such formal executive investigation is launched before the end of Donald Trump's second term, OR

2. Democrats do not win or hold a majority in either the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate at any point during Trump's second term (in which case a "Democrat-controlled Congress" condition is not met).

Notes and edge cases:

• A chamber is considered "Democrat-controlled" if the Democratic Party (including independents caucusing with Democrats) holds a numerical majority of seats in that chamber.

• Purely political rhetoric, threats on social media, or preliminary public statements without an official, documented agency action, grand jury investigation, or formal inquiry do not suffice.

• If Democrats never control either the House or the Senate during the term, the market will resolve NO (unless the market creator specifies N/A via an edit).

• Resolution will rely on credible reporting by major news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters) and official Department of Justice or federal agency announcements.

Background

During his campaign and post-presidency, Donald Trump frequently criticized congressional inquiries directed at him—including the House select committee investigating the January 6 Capitol attack, as well as the 2019 and 2021 impeachment inquiries—characterizing them as partisan weaponization. Following the 2024 elections, Republicans retained control of the House and won a majority in the Senate for the 119th Congress. Consequently, a Democratic-controlled chamber could only occur following the 2026 midterm elections (convening in January 2027) or via special elections/party switches.