Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if the Vice President inaugurated in January 2029 is a Republican) in the United States Senate following the November 2028 elections, when the 121st Congress convenes in January 2029.

This market will resolve to NO if Democrats or any other coalition control the majority of the Senate for the start of the 121st Congress.

• Control is determined by the official Senate party division reported by the United States Senate or official organizing resolutions adopted at the convening of the 121st Congress.

• Independents who caucus with a party count toward that party's caucus total.

• If control is not formally organized by January 31, 2029 due to contested elections or recounts, the market will resolve according to the consensus calls of major news networks (e.g., AP, Decision Desk HQ).

Background

The Class 3 Senate seats are up for regular election in November 2028, running concurrently with the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Senate control is determined either by an outright majority of 51 seats or by 50 seats combined with the tie-breaking vote of the Vice President of the United States.