Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 218 out of 435 voting seats) in the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 general elections.

• If the Republican Party wins fewer than 218 seats, or if another party wins the majority, this market resolves to NO.

• Resolution will be based on the official certification of election results reported by the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives or consensus declarations from major news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, NBC News, ABC News, and CBS News) once control of the 111th Congress convening in January 2029 is decided.

• If Republicans already hold the majority going into the 2028 election, retaining the majority will count as "winning" the House (resolving to YES), unless the market creator amends the question before substantial trading occurs.

Background

All 435 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are contested every two years. A party requires 218 seats to secure an outright majority and elect the Speaker of the House. The 2028 elections will coincide with the U.S. presidential election, typically resulting in higher turnout and presidential coattail effects compared to midterm election cycles.