Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2028 United States presidential election. It resolves to NO if any other candidate (Republican, third-party, or independent) wins the election.

The outcome will be determined by the official certification of the Electoral College votes by the U.S. Congress, typically scheduled for January 2029. In the event of a contingent election in the House of Representatives, the winner of that contingent election will determine the resolution.

Reliable major news sources reporting the certified winner—such as the Associated Press or Reuters—will be used for verification. If the 2028 election is delayed, the market will remain open until the election is completed and certified.

Background

Following the 2024 presidential election, the Republican Party assumed control of the White House with the inauguration of Donald Trump in January 2025. Because the 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms, Trump is ineligible to run in 2028, leaving the Republican nomination open.

The next presidential election is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, with the winner inaugurated on January 20, 2029. This market focuses on whether the Democratic nominee will successfully win back the presidency in this cycle.

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