Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Metaculus officially launches a dedicated native or hybrid mobile application prior to January 1, 2034, at 00:00 UTC.

To qualify, the application must be officially published by Metaculus Inc. and made publicly available for download on a major mobile app platform (such as the Apple App Store or Google Play Store) or made available as an official standalone application installer package. A responsive mobile web interface or standard web application accessed via a web browser does not satisfy this criterion unless offered as a packaged, installable mobile application via official distribution channels.

If no official Metaculus mobile app is launched before January 1, 2034, 00:00 UTC, this market resolves NO.

Background

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and Public Benefit Corporation founded in 2015. The platform aggregates user and AI predictions on scientific, technological, and geopolitical developments. Historically, Metaculus has operated through a responsive web platform rather than native mobile applications for iOS or Android.