Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, ActBlue (including its primary operating entities ActBlue LLC, ActBlue Civics, or ActBlue Technical Services) permanently ceases operations, dissolves, files for liquidation bankruptcy, or is permanently barred by a federal court or government agency from processing political contributions.

This market will resolve to NO if ActBlue continues to actively operate and process political donations as of January 1, 2029.

Clarifications and Edge Cases:

• Rebranding/Mergers: If ActBlue undergoes a rebranding, merger, or corporate restructuring where the underlying platform continues to function and process donations under a different corporate name or successor entity, the market will resolve to NO.

• Temporary Pauses: Temporary technical outages, brief voluntary pauses, or temporary legal injunctions that are lifted—allowing operations to resume before January 1, 2029—will not trigger a YES. However, if the platform is non-operational or legally barred at the time of the January 1, 2029 deadline, it will resolve to YES.

• Sources of Truth: Resolution will be verified using credible national news outlets (such as The New York Times or The Washington Post), official press releases on ActBlue's official site, or active filings in the FEC Committee Database.

Background

ActBlue is a major non-profit technology organization and the dominant online fundraising platform for Democratic candidates, progressive organizations, and left-leaning PACs. Since its founding in 2004, it has processed billions of dollars in small-dollar contributions.

In recent years, the platform has faced intense political and legal pressure. House Republican-led committees have accused ActBlue of maintaining lax fraud-prevention policies that potentially allow illegal straw donations or foreign contributions. In April 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order directing the Department of Justice to investigate the platform's verification practices. This scrutiny escalated further with congressional subpoenas, contempt threats, and staff departures. ActBlue has denied all allegations of wrongdoing, characterizing the investigations as politically motivated attempts to undermine progressive campaign infrastructure.