Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican). Otherwise this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2029, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture. Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.