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MANIFOLD
Which technology companies will be defunct and cease to exist before 2050?
2
Ṁ250Ṁ190
2049
50%
Perplexity
50%
X
34%
OpenAI
34%
None of the above
24%
Meta
17%
Google
17%
Microsoft
17%
Apple
17%
Amazon
17%
Alphabet

Resolution criteria

Each company option in this market resolves YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, the named company permanently ceases all business operations, undergoes complete legal dissolution, or is fully liquidated (such as via Chapter 7 bankruptcy or equivalent legal proceedings) with no surviving operating entity. Otherwise, the option resolves NO.

  • Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring: Corporate name changes, holding company restructures (e.g., Google operating under Alphabet Inc.), or acquisitions/mergers where operations continue under a parent or successor entity do NOT count as defunct and will resolve NO.

  • Reorganization: Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings or legal reorganizations where business operations continue do NOT qualify for a YES resolution unless the entity ultimately undergoes full liquidation before January 1, 2050.

  • "None of the above": Resolves YES on January 1, 2050, if no other company options in this market have resolved YES prior to that date.

  • Sources: Resolution will be determined using official legal filings (e.g., SEC filings, state corporate registries such as the Delaware Division of Corporations), court bankruptcy dockets, or major financial news reporting.

Background

While major technology companies occasionally face antitrust pressures, shifting market conditions, or restructuring, total liquidation of mega-cap tech firms is historically rare; dominant players are more frequently acquired or reorganized into parent holding companies. Note that several entities operate under specific corporate structures, such as Google operating as a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., and OpenAI operating under a non-profit parent entity controlling a profit-capped subsidiary.

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