Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) completes its initial public offering (IPO) on a major public stock exchange (such as the NYSE or NASDAQ) on or before the first date on which the price of Bitcoin (BTC) hits or exceeds $100,000 USD after April 23, 2026.
If Bitcoin is already trading above $100,000 on April 23, 2026, the threshold for resolution will be the next time Bitcoin hits $100,000 after falling below it. If Bitcoin does not hit $100,000 again, the market resolves based on whether SpaceX completes its IPO.
Resolution will be based on:
SpaceX IPO: Official confirmation of the first day of trading for SpaceX shares on a public exchange via sources such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or official filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bitcoin Price: Data from a reputable cryptocurrency price aggregator such as CoinMarketCap (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) or CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin).
Background
SpaceX is a private aerospace company founded by Elon Musk. As of April 2026, the company has confidentially filed for an IPO, with reports suggesting a target listing in mid-2026 and a potential valuation exceeding $1 trillion.
Bitcoin first surpassed the $100,000 USD price threshold in December 2024 and has crossed this level multiple times since that date. Because the threshold has been met in the past, this market tracks the relative timing of the SpaceX IPO compared to the next instance of Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 mark.
1,000