Would an investment of $10,000 in SpaceX at its closing price on the day of its IPO have greater total returns than the same amount invested in an index fund tracking the S&P 500 after two years?

For resolution, I plan to chart the return on $10,000 in SpaceX (SPCX) vs. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), with dividends re-invested, on Morningstar (or equivalent), from the day of IPO to the same calendar day two years later.

If SpaceX is acquired or delisted, I will resolve early using the total returns of both up to that point. If VOO is discontinued, I will use an equivalent low-cost ETF.

If the SpaceX IPO is canceled or delayed past 2026, the market will resolve N/A.