Will 80% of the world (humans) have an online presence by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

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I found this market via "related markets" on my market here:
https://manifold.markets/HaydenJackson/what-percentage-of-the-global-popul

I'm interested in this sort of question for many reasons...
Will the current trends continue?
Will they accelerate?
Will there be a significant movement of people leaving the internet?
Etc.

Does manifold count as an online presence?

@AndrewHartman What do you mean? Online presence to me means ability to have a presence on the internet

@Dreamingpast "The internet" is not a physical place, so in the natural meaning of the word you can't be present there at all. Thus, you're going to have to specify - do you mean "have an account on social media?" "Be easily searchable by their real name?" (a la LinkedIn or whatever)

@AndrewHartman well the internet is a physical space. Its just distributed as well as centralized, instead of all being in the same place. The person who's me, the one behind this username, is an internet user, while someone without access to connect to the internet obviously cannot interact on internet platforms, or use products requiring internet access (internet as a service and internet as a product)

@Dreamingpast Sounds to me like you're conflating presence with access, which is an atypical usage of presence even in the sloppy imprecise modern context. I recommend you edit the title to "Will 80% of the world have internet access by 2023?"

@AndrewHartman *by the end of

What measure are you using to resolve this?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ShakedKoplewitz any 5+ reputable media sources claiming so.

For example, for now, https://datareportal.com/global-digital-overview approximates it at 63.5%, but due to the uncertainty I'm willing to resolve a 2ish percent points either way, 78% would count 80