Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by July 31st, 2022?

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Aug 4, 2:49pm: I have legitimate reason not to resolve that market yet as I have received recent and substantial evidence that there is too much ambiguity to do so. There should be clarity soon and for those concerned whether I will resolve it in a timely and accurate manner still have access to the derivative market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#Trump

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predicted YES

I will be closing this market in 10 days at the very latest. On the 26th or 27th at the latest. That’s a Dr Picklestand promise.

predicted NO

@DrP

predicted NO

@arae He included the 27th, I assume he and manifold just do the count slightly differently.

@arae Dr. P's word is his bond. A Picklestandupguy

Is this a "double derivative" market? I suspect the good Doctor may not actually wait until the end of the month to resolve, but if you think/fear I'm wrong you can take my money.

https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar-8278c28d9472

predicted YES

I have legitimate reason not to resolve that market yet as I have received recent and substantial evidence that there is too much ambiguity to do so. There should be clarity soon and for those concerned whether I will resolve it in a timely and accurate manner still have access to the derivative market.

FWIW I think Dr P's actions here, while annoying to many, are serving somewhat of a "grey hat" role in highlighting the need for a reputation and/or community resolution system. If Manifold is to continue to grow, it needs to be able to handle trolls much more obnoxious (or worse, more subtle) and numerous than Dr P.

Also, all y'all betting on a market with a super obvious resolution whose creator was constantly betting against that super obvious resolution are now confused that something weird is going on? Wha? (I think he's gonna resolve honorably, but I certainly didn't bet on it)

@MattP Yes exactly, I must admit I was a little perplexed by their statement of potential bans, which seems somewhat contrary to their explicit design?

Also, I suspect the stall is another "troll" from DrP's part, he's just going to bet on the derivative market until he's maxed out his profit, then resolve this market correctly, and make a ton of profit. I suspect he's looking for attention/establish himself as an "infamous member", which we are giving him so far

predicted NO

@MattP Hasn't Dr P resolved their previous Trump markets correctly as NO, despite buying YES? I don't think this market is really THAT far out of the ordinary (yet). There was definitely some risk in participating in this market, but (a) you can say that about everything on Manifold, (b) the right price may be worth the risk, and (c) derivate markets allowed you to hedge. For some, the greater lesson might be that you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket when there's always that inherent risk. At the risk of post hoc rationalizing, I don't really regret buying 50 NO at 15%.

predicted YES

Yeah, it's clearly a troll (which is not to say that it couldn't be both a troll and a scam). I'm pretty sure that DrP is losing lots of mana if they resolve these markets correctly, the volume on the derivative market is tiny by comparison, but this is perfectly consistent with being willing to spend mana to troll people. I agree with Matt that Manifold is going to have to eventually expect lots of trolls and scams that are much more insidious than this. It's not any individual's fault that they are feeding the troll - seems that lots of new users who don't know DrP's reputation bet here and then were understandably frustrated. (I do wonder whether creating a derivative market was a net benefit or harm to the community though - probably it helped inform at least a few people of the risk, but also I wouldn't be surprised if DrP waits 29 days to resolve.) The statement on potential bans should in principle have nothing to do with behavior as a market author, it should be about the problematic comments only. (In practice I'm sure their reputation as an author is not helping their case.)

@jack > but also I wouldn't be surprised if DrP waits 29 days to resolve Yup, very likely now IMO

predicted YES

@JoyVoid well, still better than the several months for the first market I guess. Next time if I make a derivative market like this (not sure if I should) I would probably set the timeframe shorter.

predicted YES

@jack I appreciate you.

@wavedash yep, which is why I do think he'll probably resolve correctly.

predicted NO

@DrP Resolve this market. That is an order.

@DrP Reminder to resolve this ASAP please.

predicted NO

Gonna stop using manifold because of this

predicted NO

@TimothyRooney 😢 I'll send you a manalink for M$500 if you don't!

predicted YES

@TimothyRooney Looking at the bet history it seems like I was on the other side of most of your bet here. I did feel pretty dirty doing people like that. So I’d be happy to chip in too and do my penance. Also an open offer to other people who are in the same situation of course.

predicted NO

@1941159478 not your fault. more of a product decision on manifolds part

predicted NO

when will this be resolved ?

predicted YES

Suspiciously, Dr P is betting on the derivative market https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar#wf13I8F2gTn85PrzRW25 even though they still aren't resolving this one.

This is why we need reputation features

predicted YES

@JoyVoid Totally agreed, but this market is basically a reputation/gambling market anyway and everyone betting on it ought to know it lol

predicted NO

@jack I think that kind of borderline-gatekeepy knowledge makes Manifold less accessible.

predicted YES

@wavedash If you just read the market description without any prior context, what did you think was going on? (Real question, I'm actually curious.) I guess I might think it's a joke market but not necessarily that it was scammy. So I definitely do agree that reputation features would be a great addition.

predicted NO

@jack You can buy shares without navigating to this page, using those up and down arrows.

predicted YES

@wavedash Oh yeah good point, I never use those but I know a lot of people do. I don't really see how there would be space to help show author reputation on the home page either though.

@wavedash I think that's a huge downside on the arrows, usually people bet without reading the description, which can have a very different resolution mechanism that what people would expect

@jack You could easilly show stats or color around the username I think. Like a little red flag for instance, depending on how those work

predicted YES

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-implement-a-community - made a question on whether Manifold will add a reputation feature @JoyVoid Yeah, good idea!

@wavedash yeah, the up/down arrows are a bad feature IMO partially for that reason.

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