Will Manifold implement a community reputation feature by end of September?
33%
chance
Oct 1
M$204 bet
Gigacasting
Gigacasting is betting NO at 23%
“How do we avoid groupthink and generate multiple independent estimates of events’ probabilities?” “Let’s vote on each other and leave market resolution to total chance 🤔”
0
jack
When you say the estimates of events' probabilities - that's when the market is open and people are making predictions. The problem comes when it comes time to resolve the market - there's no mechanism to help a) reach a correct resolution and b) evaluate whether resolutions were accurate; other than by discussing in the comments, which is severely lacking in many ways.
0
Gigacasting
Gigacasting bought M$5 of NO
Would prefer two nominees to resolve if someone ghosts or who can override (and/or send for review); the whole other thing sounds very dystopian
0
jack
@Gigacasting I don't really think so, tons of sites have a karma feature of some sort. I agree that there should be a feature for abandoned markets, there's already a bunch of questions/proposals for that. Overriding the author's resolution sounds pretty complex to design in a way that works well for everyone, and one of the biggest innovations of Manifold is to sidestep that complexity entirely, so I doubt it will change anytime soon.
0
LivInTheLookingGlass
Olivia is betting YES at 30%
@Gigacasting How is it more dystopian than, for example, Reddit?
0

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