Will Manifold implement a community reputation feature by end of September?

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Ṁ1019

resolved Oct 1

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Resolves YES if Manifold implements a community-based author reputation feature (e.g. a karma system or something similar) by the end of September, otherwise NO.

Examples that would count as YES include:

If the community can upvote/downvote a user's reputation, whether with pure votes or with M$, and with the reputation displayed on their profile and/or markets.
If users can vote on agreement/disagreement with a market's resolution, and information about an author's past disputed resolutions is shown on the author's profile and/or markets.

Examples that would not count as YES here (although also potentially useful features):

Allowing an individual user to add personal, private labels/notes/flags about other users
Features based solely on admin action
Features for delegating resolution

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predicted NO

This didn't happen, but from my conversations with them it's definitely on the Manifold team's radar

predicted NO

Same market for December:

predicted NO

“How do we avoid groupthink and generate multiple independent estimates of events’ probabilities?” “Let’s vote on each other and leave market resolution to total chance 🤔”

predicted YES

When you say the estimates of events' probabilities - that's when the market is open and people are making predictions. The problem comes when it comes time to resolve the market - there's no mechanism to help a) reach a correct resolution and b) evaluate whether resolutions were accurate; other than by discussing in the comments, which is severely lacking in many ways.

Would prefer two nominees to resolve if someone ghosts or who can override (and/or send for review); the whole other thing sounds very dystopian

predicted YES

@Gigacasting I don't really think so, tons of sites have a karma feature of some sort. I agree that there should be a feature for abandoned markets, there's already a bunch of questions/proposals for that. Overriding the author's resolution sounds pretty complex to design in a way that works well for everyone, and one of the biggest innovations of Manifold is to sidestep that complexity entirely, so I doubt it will change anytime soon.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting How is it more dystopian than, for example, Reddit?

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