Will Manifold implement a community reputation feature by end of September?

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resolved Oct 1

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if Manifold implements a community-based author reputation feature (e.g. a karma system or something similar) by the end of September, otherwise NO.

Examples that would count as YES include:

If the community can upvote/downvote a user's reputation, whether with pure votes or with M$, and with the reputation displayed on their profile and/or markets.
If users can vote on agreement/disagreement with a market's resolution, and information about an author's past disputed resolutions is shown on the author's profile and/or markets.

Examples that would not count as YES here (although also potentially useful features):

Allowing an individual user to add personal, private labels/notes/flags about other users
Features based solely on admin action
Features for delegating resolution

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predicted NO

This didn't happen, but from my conversations with them it's definitely on the Manifold team's radar

predicted NO

Same market for December:

predicted NO

“How do we avoid groupthink and generate multiple independent estimates of events’ probabilities?” “Let’s vote on each other and leave market resolution to total chance 🤔”

predicted YES

When you say the estimates of events' probabilities - that's when the market is open and people are making predictions. The problem comes when it comes time to resolve the market - there's no mechanism to help a) reach a correct resolution and b) evaluate whether resolutions were accurate; other than by discussing in the comments, which is severely lacking in many ways.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Would prefer two nominees to resolve if someone ghosts or who can override (and/or send for review); the whole other thing sounds very dystopian

predicted YES

@Gigacasting I don't really think so, tons of sites have a karma feature of some sort. I agree that there should be a feature for abandoned markets, there's already a bunch of questions/proposals for that. Overriding the author's resolution sounds pretty complex to design in a way that works well for everyone, and one of the biggest innovations of Manifold is to sidestep that complexity entirely, so I doubt it will change anytime soon.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting How is it more dystopian than, for example, Reddit?