This question asks whether a reputable source will revise its quarterly growth rate estimates for China for 2022 withing 2023, such that at least two consecutive quarters are found to have negative growth.
The prediction market will resolve "YES" if at least one of the following sources publishes growth estimates that show this (if there are other sources that should be included I might be open to doing so):
National Bureau of Statistics of China - the official government agency responsible for collecting and publishing economic data, including the quarterly GDP growth rate.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - a reputable international organization that provides economic analysis and forecasts, including estimates of economic growth.
World Bank - a leading international development institution that provides data and analysis on a wide range of economic indicators, including GDP growth rates.
China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Centre (CEMA)
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - a US government agency responsible for collecting and publishing economic data, including estimates of GDP growth.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - an international organization that provides data and analysis on economic growth, among other indicators.
China Securities Journal - a reputable news organization that focuses on economic and financial news, including GDP growth rates.
Financial Times - a leading international business and financial news organization that provides analysis and data on economic growth.
In 2008-2009, the global financial crisis resulted in a sharp slowdown in many economies around the world, including the United States, Europe, and China. Initially, many countries' growth rates were estimated to be positive, but as the impact of the crisis became more evident, the estimates were revised downward, resulting in at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.