All Presidential candidates and the current President/VP will be EXCLUDED. Too easy. The follwing will qualify: Cabinet members, Senators, Congresspersons, Governors, and the 4 mayors of cities >2m people.
Market has been launched as of 10:30am on November 7th. Any story that broke before this time will not count, unless heavily modified with new information.
"Major" will be a judgment call. It must be a significant national story, substantive, and it must include at least some members of their own party criticizing them. Accusations that are of a serious nature will count, even if not ultimately born out to be true.
I will try to judge fairly without partisan leanings. I personally hate both parties and think almost all politicians are self-absorbed partisan hacks. If you think something qualifies, feel free to post, but only post major scandals plz, don't try to make Fetch happen.
[To use a recent example, Tlaib's tweets about Palestine would definitely be a major scandal. Whereas the Mayor Adams/Turkey fundraising story definitely would not count (not yet at least!) Based on the frequency of major scandals, I would anticipate this market to last for days or weeks, and not months.]
Related questions
Not really certain how to gauge a scandal here - would this count? He's resigned.
Arizona GOP Chair Jeff DeWit allegedly attempted to bribe Lake not to run for Senate
"Arizona Republican Party Chairman Jeff DeWit resigned Wednesday after he could be heard in a leaked recording offering a job and asking U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake to name a price that would keep her out of politics.
DeWit's departure shakes up the Republican Party in a battleground state that will feature prominently in the battle for control of the White House and the U.S. Senate in the November election."
@shankypanky Good shout, would definitely qualify, but he's not a politician unfortunately
@Domer got it - I'll keep an eye out, maybe a plot twist comes along and brings someone more relevant into the story. In the recording he alluded to "powerful people" who want her out.
Update: Mayor Adams has been headed towards winning this since inception, with a slow trickle of bad news. BUT we still lack any sort of concrete allegation of wrongdoing, and TBD if that ever comes! Definitely need at least a well-reported allegation for him to win.
His new polling numbers came in, and he has a real bad 35-49 approval among Democrats.
In hindsight, I should've added a third option, "no major scandal by X date" to prevent the market from going stale lol.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/nyregion/adams-fbi-investigation-phones.html
Still need some juicy allegations to get there.
#4 on trending for me, seems promising!
Candidate, not politician, but this is what I’ve bet on happening to an elected R
@KevinLobLaw To be precise, I don't think the initial stuff would count, because you're right. Nothing new. Her defending "from the river to the sea" would definitely count lol. That's been heavily criticized by her own party. The tweet has 40k replies.