
After Republicans next win control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, will they maintain control for the following ten years?
In other words, after the Republican party next gains control of the executive and legislative branches, will they win the following two midterms and elections?
The possibility of Republicans putting to end to democracy in America is being increasingly discussed as midterm elections near. I wanted to put a number on that possibility. I tried to choose a set of resolution criteria which would be as objective as possible.
RESOLUTION EDGE CASES:
If elections are abolished entirely, I will resolve this YES early rather than wait to see if they get re-established. If elections are postponed or "put on hold temporarily" , then if there's a very plausible alibi I'll allow a single election to be skipped and "pause the stopwatch" until the next election, if this happens twice I just resolve YES.
If the Republican party loses power non-electorally, for instance in a coup, I will resolve NO early.
If there's a civil war in which multiple groups are recognized as the legitimate government of the United States by at least 20 other countries, and this civil war lasts long enough to interrupt an election, I will resolve NA.