Resolution criteria
This resolution will be determined by GiveWell's published "best guess" population estimate for the Democratic Republic of Congo on January 1st, 2027, measured in millions of people. Resolution will reference GiveWell's official research pages, cost-effectiveness analyses, or grant documentation where such estimates appear.
Background
GiveWell regularly incorporates population estimates into its cost-effectiveness analyses for programs operating in the DRC, particularly for malaria prevention interventions.
Considerations
Population estimates for the DRC vary significantly across sources. There can be meaningful variation in population estimates provided by different data sources, and the most accurate source is highly dependent on country context, requiring significant expertise to assess reliability. GiveWell's specific methodology and which data sources it prioritizes for its January 1st, 2027 estimate may differ from standard UN projections or other publicly available estimates.
This description was generated by AI. edited by human
1,000@Tetraspace The source of the number on that sheet is the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Population Estimates 1950-2019, specifically the median number from 2019 (median of a range of 112,590,350 to 61,748,630)
@Tetraspace GiveWell's "CEA of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) — 2025 version 2 (public)", however, uses the 2021 global burden of disease study, putting the national population at 90,017,764 (midpoint of 117,854,096 and 62,962,649).
All CEAs mentioned in this thread so far from https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models