Definitions:

• Will - This is what makes this a question

• manifold.love - Manifold-related dating app that's supposed to launch soon. In case the service is hosted at different domain, as long as it's run by Manifold, it still counts.

• reach 50 - The number will be this high at least once before the market closes

• active profiles - People who have a profile and are looking for dates, and have used the service withing a month. If possible, I will not count obvious spam, bots or scammers.

• in Europe - If there is any official statistics using some definition of Europe, I will use that as well. Otherwise, I will use the map on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe infobox as it was on 2023-10-16, rounding uncertain cases (e.g. profile says "Russia") to be in Europe. Note that this means physical location, so If a person is travelling in Europe and that's mentioned in the profile, it will still count as "in Europe" for that time.

• by end of 2024 - Resolves NO when year changes to 2025, if the profile count has not been reached

Resolution:

• Resolves YES immediately, if there is an official dashboard showing this statistic, and the conditions have been fullfilled. Same goes if someone provides me proof that this is the case. At least a statement by Manifold employee or an analysis on publicly available data could do this.

• Resolves N/A if there's no credible evidence pointing to either direction. For instance, if majority of the profiles contain no location information, this will likely be the case.

• Resolves NO if the statistics, a statement or an analysis indicates that the conditions have not been fullfilled.

• Resolves NO if the service hasn't launched by market close.