Looks like it will be extremely close with my maths ( using a near infinit error to successful extrapolation with a bias of +0.345) it should occur at 0600-2000 hrs on 31-12-2023.
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1740628828135756267
"Congrats to the SpaceX team on achieving 96 launches in 2023!"
29 Dec 2023
That is not 100. Resolve please. @DeeMan (suspect inactive).
short window to argue before I update the description, but it seems the best/most obvious way to resolve this is to go off elons count (and eventual celebration if they hit 100)
It would take a pretty compelling argument to convince me this is not the best interpretation, but nowβs your chance
(not trading this market, mod comment)
If Elon does not celebrate with a post/tweet, use SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
(Argument: Reliable Source vs relying on 1 Person to possibly post/tweet)
@Gen I think that's the best way to resolve this if Elon comments on the number of lunches. What if he doesn't say anything to that effect though? In that case it's not clear whether the two suborbital launches should count. By the most literal interpretation they do, though the question was likely created in reference to Elon's goal of 100 orbital launches, so I've been assuming it's 50/50 whether they'll be counted. Based on the tweet linked by @quantizor below it doesn't seem Elon is counting the suborbital launches in the count currently, since the 90 launches at that time did not include the Starship flights.
If you do not count the Starship, than their is still 13 planned Falcon 9 & 1 Falcon Heavy launches for December.
That would be 105 Launches if all launch (excluding Starship).
If you exclude Falcon Heavy, currently it is 87 launches with 13 planned, totaling 100 for Falcon 9.
We are at 91 excluding Starship as of 12/13/2023.
We are at 87 excluding Starship & Heavy as of 12/13/2023
@DeeMan and their projection "Time" for the final launch of the year is pretty spot on based on historical data of launch date/time/weather. But that final launch could be up to the 105th of the year (excluding Starship), and 100 (excluding Starship & Heavy)
Knowing Elon, this market should be a tad higher in % imo , he loves SpaceX goals, he despises Tesla goals.
@SirCryptomind I think that Falcon Heavy should definitely count. I am less optimistic than you about how many of the flights listed "NET December 2023" on Next Spaceflight will actually launch. Note that IFT-3 is also listed as NET December there even though there's no way it will launch this year.
@Gen even if u count everything it resolvea to No. it's been 93 launches. 15 days to pull off 7.
@TimDuffy I am no expert on what will or won't launch, I just know how to find data and research myself. π
@notarealuser It's 17 days, but I get the point. I know they have 4 scheduled, that is 97 if they indeed launch as planned.
I still think there is a chance since the 4 scheduled are Fri/Sun scheduled which leaves the weekday open for others to get approval and launch.
@SirCryptomind i know space x has normalized launches to a level that it's almost boring to watch them at this point. but 3 launches is a big deal. they take a lot of work. 7 launches in 17 days is a lot to pull off. 3 launches in one week is going to be especially hard due to weather.
@notarealuser Theoretically even 9 more Falcon launches (and thus exactly 100 launches when NOT counting Starship) are still possible, but only if SARah 2/3 and WorldView Legion 1/2 really launch this year (which is somewhat doubtful, we haven't heard any news about these for a while) and their boosters returns to the launch site, for example like this:
4x Vandenberg: Starlink 7-9 on December 15th, SARah on 20th, WorldView on 25th, Starlink 7-10 on 30th
4x SLC-40: Starlink 6-34 on 18th, Ovzon-3 on 22nd, Starlink 6-35 on 26th, Starlink 6-32 on 30th
USSF-52 from LC-39A (nothing else can launch from there while launchpad is configured for Falcon Heavy)
...but this is very unlikely. On the other hand, just 7 more launches (if Starship launches DO count) seem a bit more feasible.
@dp9000 Excellent analysis, you've given a good illustration of how 9 is just barely possible. There are a couple reasons I think SpaceX will fall a few flights short of that, which is why I'm still holding most of my NO shares at the current low price:
Eric Berger doesn't seem very optimistic that USSF-52 will launch this year: https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/technical-problems-ground-spacex-launch-of-us-military-spaceplane/
As you said, SARah and WorldView don't seem likely to launch this year.
Four launches from SLC-40 would be extremely tight. SpaceX's fastest turnarounds have been around 4 days, and this would require three such turnarounds in a row.
If one of SARah/Worldview launches this year (or if Starlink 7-11 does, not sure if this is plausible), and either USSF-52 launches or SLC-40 has four launches, you could make it to 100 with the two Starship flights. I think there's a decent chance of that, maybe 30%. However if you don't count the Starship flights I think the probability is more like 3%.
@TimDuffy After research and talking with you all I've changed my mind. I sold my YES at micro profits of like 5 mana lol.
I sold because I don't believe it will be reached no matter which way you count what is launched. I am now team NO. π
@Gen If Elon celebrates reaching goal (of ***up to*** 100) where this does not mean that 100 was reached, then ...?
IMO, this claim is about whether 100 is reached not about whether Elon celebrates reaching nearly 100. Can't reach 100 now so should resolve no
Falcon 9: 87
Heavy: 4
Starship: 2
Total: 93 (As of 12/13/2023)
DECEMBER:
Starlink Group 7-9 Mission got pushed to 12/16/2023
Next 3 scheduled are now:
@SirCryptomind Note that "OCISLY" (Of Course I Still Love You) is the name of the landing site, not the name of the mission (Starlink Group 7-9)
@traders
New Update to Starlink Group 7-9 ;
Scrubbed launch 12/15/23
Scrubbed launch 12/16/23.
New Date Fri. 12/29/23
Also New Update On Upcoming Flights: Now Have 5 Confirmed dates, but obviously this can change as we have seen with Falcon 9 Block 5 Starlink Group 7-9.
