Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
WEIRD Doomsday
22
106
แน€430
2030
8%
chance

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

  1. Australia

  2. Austria

  3. Belgium

  4. Canada

  5. Czech Republic

  6. Denmark

  7. Estonia

  8. France

  9. Greece

  10. Germany

  11. Iceland

  12. Italy

  13. Latvia

  14. Luxembourg

  15. Netherlands

  16. New Zealand

  17. Norway

  18. Spain

  19. Sweden

  20. Switzerland

  21. United Kingdom

  22. United States

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@geometry dash online I like your post!

bought แน€10 of YES

People do realize that a large chunk of probability here is in "the US declares war on the Netherlands pursuant to the act making it invade the Hague", right?

predicts NO

@Lorxus there is exactly zero chance of that happening

predicts YES

@FrancescoDondi it is a legal requirement my dude https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act

bought แน€0 of YES

@FrancescoDondi so... bid me down or maybe shut up about it being literally zero?

Curious where that list is coming from. For example, why not include Ireland?

predicts NO

@PatMyron cause I forgot about it

Slovakia gets snubbed

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