This market asks if Waymo can meet a safety standard closer to that of commercial aviation than of human driving.

While standard benchmarks aim to prove AVs are safer than human drivers (who would cause roughly 27 fatalities in 2 billion miles), this market sets the bar at zero at-fault fatalities. This represents a level of reliability and safety engineering expected in air travel, not on the road, making it a test of a much higher standard than what's needed to merely outperform a human.

Key Definitions:

• "2 Billion Autonomous Miles": Refers to cumulative miles driven by the Waymo fleet in fully autonomous mode (no human driver) on public roads, as officially announced by Waymo/Alphabet.

• "Fatality": The death of any person (Waymo occupant, occupant of another vehicle, pedestrian, cyclist, etc.) resulting from a collision involving a Waymo vehicle.

• "At-Fault": The collision is determined to be the fault of the Waymo vehicle by the official, final report from a relevant government authority (e.g., NHTSA, NTSB, or the primary law enforcement agency that investigated the incident).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, upon reaching 2 billion cumulative, fully autonomous miles, the total number of at-fault fatalities involving Waymo vehicles is zero.

This market will resolve to NO if, upon reaching 2 billion cumulative, fully autonomous miles, the total number of at-fault fatalities involving Waymo vehicles is one or more.

Additional Terms:

• The closing date for this market is January 1, 2040. If Waymo has not officially announced reaching 2 billion miles by this date, the market will resolve to N/A.

• Resolution will be based on a preponderance of evidence from reputable news sources and official government reports. The final determination of "at-fault" rests with the relevant authorities, not Waymo's internal analysis.