By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?
35
1kṀ52612030
7%
2025
29%
2026
43%
2027
52%
2028
70%
2029
Resolved
NO2024
Either private ownership, or available as robotaxis etc.
Level 4 or better; if a human at the wheel is required, it won't count for this market
Limited trials may or may not count at my discretion; a service with a waitlist like Waymo had until recently will be counted as long as it's possible for a normal person to get on said waitlist.
The year when they first become available and all years after it that have been added as answers on the market will resolve YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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