This refers to stage 1 of the prediction contest ("blind mode") to see whether we performed as well as we did last year where prediction markets scored at the 99.5th percentile (beating 506 of 508 participants).
See here for the discussion of the 2022 results:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022
Here is the group of markets for the questions: https://manifold.markets/group/acx-2023-prediction-contest
If the Astral Codex 2023 contest results writeup states Manifold performed better than last year's result (at or higher than 99.5th percentile compared to blind mode results), this will resolve yes.
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๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน231 | |
| 2 | แน140 | |
| 3 | แน78 | |
| 4 | แน71 | |
| 5 | แน71 |
It looks like Scott Alexander didnโt look at blind mode in his write up, just full mode. However, it seems clear that Manifold didnโt hit the same 99.5th percentile. I think this can resolve NO @SirSalty
@DanStoyell Same strategy here. 99.5% is an extremely high bar.
On top of that there's rounding issues this far out on the tails, e.g. if there are less than 200 participants, the requirement is to win the contest.
@NickAllen I'm not entirely sure, that's why the resolution criteria is based on what Scott says our performance is as presumably, he will keep the method of comparison the same between years. If it isn't clear in the writeup for this year's contest I'll send a message and ask him.
@DavidChee Sam says on lesswrong: These are supposed to be market prices as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions.ย