DavidChee avatar
closes Dec 31
Will Manifold Markets perform better in the 2023 Astral Codex Ten contest than 2022?

This refers to stage 1 of the prediction contest ("blind mode") to see whether we performed as well as we did last year where prediction markets scored at the 99.5th percentile (beating 506 of 508 participants).

See here for the discussion of the 2022 results:

Here is the group of markets for the questions: https://manifold.markets/group/acx-2023-prediction-contest

If the Astral Codex 2023 contest results writeup states Manifold performed better than last year's result (at or higher than 99.5th percentile compared to blind mode results), this will resolve yes.

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KCS avatar
is predicting YES at 38%

Related, but regarding Full Mode, where contestants may use Manifold or other markets or research.

KCS avatar
bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm assuming this will be restricted to comparison against 2023's "blind mode" participants, in order to be most similar to the comparison last year?

DanStoyell avatar
Dan Stoyell
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Betting on regression towards the mean - I think Manifold's "mean" is significantly higher than the overall mean, but 99.5 percentile is a high bar and I think some chance was involved.

VitorBosshard avatar
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@DanStoyell Same strategy here. 99.5% is an extremely high bar.

On top of that there's rounding issues this far out on the tails, e.g. if there are less than 200 participants, the requirement is to win the contest.

Lily avatar

@VitorBosshard The post says there are 3500 entries so far

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen
bought Ṁ61 of NO

It wasn't clear from Scott's writeup: When did he take the Manifold predictions? Was it on the last day for other contest predictions, or was it later?

DavidChee avatar

@NickAllen I'm not entirely sure, that's why the resolution criteria is based on what Scott says our performance is as presumably, he will keep the method of comparison the same between years. If it isn't clear in the writeup for this year's contest I'll send a message and ask him.

KCS avatar

@DavidChee Sam says on lesswrong: These are supposed to be market prices as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions.