Will Manifold Markets perform better in the 2023 Astral Codex Ten contest than 2022?
1.3k
resolved Mar 29
Resolved
NO

This refers to stage 1 of the prediction contest ("blind mode") to see whether we performed as well as we did last year where prediction markets scored at the 99.5th percentile (beating 506 of 508 participants).

See here for the discussion of the 2022 results:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022

Here is the group of markets for the questions: https://manifold.markets/group/acx-2023-prediction-contest

If the Astral Codex 2023 contest results writeup states Manifold performed better than last year's result (at or higher than 99.5th percentile compared to blind mode results), this will resolve yes.

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It looks like Scott Alexander didn’t look at blind mode in his write up, just full mode. However, it seems clear that Manifold didn’t hit the same 99.5th percentile. I think this can resolve NO @SirSalty

predicted YES

Related, but regarding Full Mode, where contestants may use Manifold or other markets or research.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm assuming this will be restricted to comparison against 2023's "blind mode" participants, in order to be most similar to the comparison last year?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Betting on regression towards the mean - I think Manifold's "mean" is significantly higher than the overall mean, but 99.5 percentile is a high bar and I think some chance was involved.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@DanStoyell Same strategy here. 99.5% is an extremely high bar.

On top of that there's rounding issues this far out on the tails, e.g. if there are less than 200 participants, the requirement is to win the contest.

@VitorBosshard The post says there are 3500 entries so far

bought Ṁ61 of NO

It wasn't clear from Scott's writeup: When did he take the Manifold predictions? Was it on the last day for other contest predictions, or was it later?

@NickAllen I'm not entirely sure, that's why the resolution criteria is based on what Scott says our performance is as presumably, he will keep the method of comparison the same between years. If it isn't clear in the writeup for this year's contest I'll send a message and ask him.

@DavidChee Sam says on lesswrong: These are supposed to be market prices as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions.