This refers to stage 2 of the Astral Codex Ten 2023 prediction contest ("Full Mode") to see how Manifold stacks up against predictors who may use Manifold's predictions and other markets or research.
See here for the discussion of the ACX 2022 results, where Manifold did very well, but there was no "Full Mode":
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022
Here is the group of markets for the questions: https://manifold.markets/group/acx-2023-prediction-contest
Resolves to the percentile placement that Manifold will have if it made a Full Mode submission at the same cutoff date (Feb. 1, 2022) as the rest of the Full Mode contestants.
1,000
3.00@traders Though Scott's methods aren't super clear to me, I'm inclined to naively resolve to 89% without overthinking it given the small stakes on this market. Let me know if anyone has a problem with that.
From https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023:
Manifold Markets: Manifold, a popular play money prediction market site, kindly agreed to open markets into our fifty questions so we could compare them to participants. The markets got between 80 and 1500 participants, average around 150. Their forecast, had it been a contestant, would have placed in the 89th percentile. This would be good for an individual, but it’s surprisingly bad for an aggregation method - in fact, it’s worse than taking the median of a randomly selected group of 150 participants! The market mechanism seems to be subtracting value! Someone might want to double-check this.
My first thought: Even if Manifold is predicting optimally, contestants could just copy Manifold, and then Manifold would be in the middle of the pack, around 50%. So it seems like this market should be south of 50%.
Some possibilities:
Manifold's true capability is underestimated by the Full Moders.
Full Moders will mostly use min-max strategies, because being at the top is the only way to win money. A few will get that lucky break, but the majority won't.
Full Moders will mostly submit well before the Feb. 1 cutoff, and thus missimportant developments.
I'm curious to hear why people are betting so high!
@StevenK I agree. What do you think a typical Full Mode strategy looks like? I have yet to submit my entry or put much thought into it.