In March 2025, the U.S. deported hundreds of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador under accusations of gang affiliation, reportedly using indicators like tattoos as evidence. Human rights groups and families claim many were innocent.
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2025, a reputable source (e.g. The Guardian, El País, New York Times, UNHCR, Amnesty International, etc.) reports — with sufficient credibility — that at least one deported person was wrongfully accused, i.e., there’s strong evidence they were not a gang member and were misidentified.
It resolves NO if:
No such reporting or credible verification occurs by the end of 2025, or
Evidence supports the claims against all individuals covered in the reporting, or
The situation remains ambiguous or unverifiable.
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Key Notes:
Strong evidence could include released prison records, legal exoneration, public statements from El Salvador officials, investigative journalism, or international human rights reviews.
The person must be among those deported under this specific policy wave in March 2025.
This market is about verification — not speculation.
Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Innocence Definition Clarification:
No Existing Criminal Record: A deportee will be considered innocent only if they do not have an existing criminal record and there is no clear pathway for further court cases.
Illegal Immigration Consideration: Deportees charged with illegal immigration will be deemed non-innocent unless they are actively waiting on a hearing.
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@60minutes.bsky.social finds no evidence of criminal records in US or any other country for 75% of Venezuelans kidnapped and rendered to El Salvador. Of the rest, 22% had non-violent arrests for things like traffic violations.
https://bsky.app/profile/clarajeffery.bsky.social/post/3lm6wepunvk2g
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mdd.578815/gov.uscourts.mdd.578815.11.0.pdf
According to the court documents cited, he was found removable (i.e. did not enter legally), and was previously identified as a member of MS-13.
It does not seem like strong evidence of "innocence" as per resolution criteria - the "mistake" was being deported to El Salvador despite a court granting withholding of removal to there
@barbarous public statements were considered as something that could resolve this market.
Given there was legal protection from a judge, he has not been found or presumed guilty, yet.
Even though the others have reported not been given trail, there has been this case which had been illegally sent.
@Dauur The question refers to "strong evidence they were not a gang member" (this is different from "lacking strong evidence that they were a gang member" which should be the legal standard for any such deportation)
@Siebe https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/trump-sends-innocent-man-el-34945042
Need to likely see this reported/verified by a larger/multiple platform
Seems like a grave violation of human rights either way, but for clarification:
is this for all 238 Venezuelans recently deported to El Salvador, or only the 137 deported under the Alien Enemies Act?
does innocent in this case means no existing criminal record, crime committed leading to arrest (other than illegal immigration), or simply not being a member of Tren de Aragua? Or what combination?
All that have been done so far. Probably not anymore to come.
No existing criminal record or means for further court cases. Illegal immigration would count as non-innocent as long as they weren't waiting on a hearing etc.