In March 2025, the U.S. deported hundreds of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador under accusations of gang affiliation, reportedly using indicators like tattoos as evidence. Human rights groups and families claim many were innocent.

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2025, a reputable source (e.g. The Guardian, El País, New York Times, UNHCR, Amnesty International, etc.) reports — with sufficient credibility — that at least one deported person was wrongfully accused, i.e., there’s strong evidence they were not a gang member and were misidentified.

It resolves NO if:

No such reporting or credible verification occurs by the end of 2025, or

Evidence supports the claims against all individuals covered in the reporting, or

The situation remains ambiguous or unverifiable.

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Key Notes:

Strong evidence could include released prison records, legal exoneration, public statements from El Salvador officials, investigative journalism, or international human rights reviews.

The person must be among those deported under this specific policy wave in March 2025.

This market is about verification — not speculation.

• Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Innocence Definition Clarification:

  • No Existing Criminal Record: A deportee will be considered innocent only if they do not have an existing criminal record and there is no clear pathway for further court cases.

  • Illegal Immigration Consideration: Deportees charged with illegal immigration will be deemed non-innocent unless they are actively waiting on a hearing.