CONDITION

This market is conditional on Democrats winning at least one chamber of the 120th Congress, based on AP race calls. For the House, candidates who will caucus with Democrats must win at least 218 seats. For the Senate, at least 51 senators who caucus with Democrats must hold seats in January 2027 (a 50-50 Senate does not count, since the Vice President breaks ties). If neither condition is met, this market resolves N/A.

RESOLVES YES if, between November 3, 2026 and February 1, 2027, one or more Qualifying Actions are taken against Democratic-won seats in a chamber Democrats won, and the targeted seats meet the Seat Threshold. An attempt counts whether or not it succeeds.

QUALIFYING ACTIONS (official acts by someone with a formal role in certification or seating):

1. A governor, secretary of state, or state canvassing board refuses to certify a race, refuses to issue a certificate of election to the AP-called winner, lets the statutory certification deadline pass without certifying, or certifies someone other than the AP-called winner.

2. A state legislature passes a measure to void, overturn, or replace the result of a congressional race, or to choose the winner itself.

3. The Clerk of the House omits an AP-called Democratic winner from the roll of members-elect, or the presiding officer of either chamber refuses to administer the oath to one.

4. Either chamber holds a recorded vote on a motion or resolution to refuse to seat, or to delay the seating of, a Democratic winner. This includes motions to seat the winner only after an investigation.

5. A federal executive branch official acts to halt, void, or override certification or seating. Examples: an executive order declaring results invalid; a federal seizure of ballots or voting equipment that stops a canvass or certification; a deployment of federal personnel that stops a canvass or certification.

6. The Department of Justice, a state attorney general, the RNC, the NRCC, or the NRSC files a lawsuit asking a court to block certification or seating, or to void a result. Suits limited to recounts, ballot curing, or counting procedures do not count.

SEAT THRESHOLD

Add up the distinct Democratic-won seats targeted by all Qualifying Actions in a chamber. The threshold is met when that number reaches the smaller of: (a) 5 seats, or (b) enough seats that, with them left vacant or awarded to the Republican as the actions seek, Democrats would no longer outnumber Republicans in that chamber. Seats are counted per chamber and are not combined across the House and Senate. Independents are counted with the party they caucus with.

DOES NOT COUNT

- Statements, social media posts, fraud claims, rallies, or refusals to concede, by anyone, including the President.

- Recounts, whether automatic or requested.

- Election contests brought by individual candidates in their own races, including notices of contest under the Federal Contested Elections Act, unless the case also falls under item 6.

- County-level refusals to certify that are resolved before the state’s certification deadline.

- Actions against a seat where a court or a bipartisan state election board has found irregularities large enough to change the outcome, or has ordered a new election (NC-09 in 2018 is an example).

- Actions taken before Election Day.

RESOLUTION SOURCES

Official records such as state certification documents, the House Clerk’s roll, and the Congressional Record, plus reporting from at least two of AP, Reuters, NYT, WSJ, or Washington Post. May resolve YES early. Otherwise resolves on February 1, 2027.