This was in the small print, but I'm magnifying it here: this market resolves YES only if either the attempts are aimed at enough Democrats to challenge their majority, or if the majority > 5, five candidates.
CONDITION
This market is conditional on Democrats winning at least one chamber of the 120th Congress in the 2026 elections. Race winners are determined by AP race calls as they stand on January 3, 2027, with these adjustments: (a) If AP withholds or retracts a call because of a Qualifying Action (for example, because counting was halted or results were voided), the race goes to the candidate AP had called, or, if AP never called it, to the candidate leading in the last reported count before the Qualifying Action. (b) Calls changed for other reasons, such as a recount, are used as changed. (c) If AP calls are unavailable, Decision Desk HQ calls are used instead.
Democrats count toward the Democratic total. Independents count only if they currently caucus with Democrats or publicly committed before Election Day to doing so.
For the House, at least 218 races must be won by candidates who count toward the Democratic total. For the Senate, the Democratic total must be at least 51, counting both the winners of 2026 Senate races (including special elections) and the senators not up for election in 2026 who were serving on Election Day, November 3, 2026.
A 50-50 Senate does not count, since the Vice President breaks ties. Whether Democratic winners are actually seated does not affect this condition.
If neither condition is met, this market resolves N/A.
RESOLVES YES if, between November 3, 2026 and February 1, 2027, one or more Qualifying Actions are taken against Democratic-won seats in a chamber Democrats won, and the targeted seats meet the Seat Threshold. An attempt counts whether or not it succeeds.
QUALIFYING ACTIONS (official acts by someone with a formal role in certification or seating):
1. A governor, secretary of state, or state canvassing board refuses to certify a race, refuses to issue a certificate of election to the AP-called winner, lets the statutory certification deadline pass without certifying, or certifies someone other than the AP-called winner.
2. A state legislature passes a measure to void, overturn, or replace the result of a congressional race, or to choose the winner itself.
3. The Clerk of the House omits an AP-called Democratic winner from the roll of members-elect, or the presiding officer of either chamber refuses to administer the oath to one.
4. Either chamber holds a recorded vote on a motion or resolution to refuse to seat, delay the seating of, or remove a Democratic winner. This includes motions to seat the winner only after an investigation. It does not include swearing in a winner while referring the question of final right to the seat to a committee, as long as the winner is sworn in with full voting rights. A later recorded vote to remove that member does count.
5. A federal executive branch official acts to halt, void, or override certification or seating. Examples: an executive order declaring results invalid; a federal seizure of ballots or voting equipment that stops a canvass or certification; a deployment of federal personnel that stops a canvass or certification.
6. The Department of Justice, a state attorney general, the RNC, the NRCC, or the NRSC files a lawsuit asking a court to block certification or seating, or to void a result. Suits limited to recounts, ballot curing, or counting procedures do not count.
SEAT THRESHOLD
Add up the distinct Democratic-won seats targeted by all Qualifying Actions in a chamber. The threshold is met when that number reaches the smaller of: (a) 5 seats, or (b) enough seats that, with them left vacant or awarded to the Republican as the actions seek, Democrats would no longer outnumber Republicans in that chamber. Seats are counted per chamber and are not combined across the House and Senate. Independents are counted with the party they caucus with.
DOES NOT COUNT
- Statements, social media posts, fraud claims, rallies, or refusals to concede, by anyone, including the President.
- Recounts, whether automatic or requested.
- Election contests brought by individual candidates in their own races, including notices of contest under the Federal Contested Elections Act, unless the case also falls under item 6.
- County-level refusals to certify that are resolved before the state’s certification deadline.
- Actions against a seat where a court or a bipartisan state election board has found irregularities large enough to change the outcome, or has ordered a new election (NC-09 in 2018 is an example).
- Actions taken before Election Day.
RESOLUTION SOURCES
Official records such as state certification documents, the House Clerk’s roll, and the Congressional Record, plus reporting from at least two of AP, Reuters, NYT, WSJ, or Washington Post. May resolve YES early. Otherwise resolves on February 1, 2027.
Update 2026-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 2021-style challenge where members-elect are temporarily asked to refrain from taking the oath does not count under Qualifying Action #3.
To count, the members-elect must be actively prevented from taking the oath by a House resolution or committee.
1,000People are also trading
@DannyOBrien Would what happened in 2021 (the quote below) by itself count for 3 or 4?
Mr. ROY. Madam Speaker, on my responsibility as a Member-elect, I challenge the seating of Members-elect from the States of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The SPEAKER. Under the precedents, the Chair will ask the Members-elect of those States’ delegations to refrain from taking the oath with the other Members-elect.
https://www.congress.gov/117/crec/2021/01/03/167/1/CREC-2021-01-03-v167-house.pdf#page=7
@AaronSimansky Man, there's a lot of these cases aren't there? As I understand the process here, the challenge itself would not count under #3 , but if the members-elect were actively subsequently prevented from taking the oath by house resolution or committee, that would count. (Essentially in 2021 they were slightly delayed, rather than prevented from being seated.)
@DannyOBrien Do you mean to use a greater than sign, or a greater than or equal to sign in the title?
I really hope this seating dems refusal does not happen because if it does then gop gets back house control if dems win the house
@Ibozz91 I’m struggling to imagine an exactly comparable scenario because that was a special election, but Democrats were disproportionately delayed from being seated thus preventing a majority using explanations that were nonetheless unrelated to accusations of election fraud, the market would still resolve YES.
@Jack1 Yes, if the same kind of suit were filed against congressional results. Texas v. Pennsylvania was a state AG asking a court to void other states' results, which is what item 6 covers, and it would count even though it was dismissed. A suit against a whole state's results counts every Democratic-won seat it would affect toward the threshold.
@DannyOBrien the house has a procedure where they can swear in member in but postpone the question of who has the final right to the seat until investigation. Would a vote to do this be a qualifying action for a "Yes" resolution.
@AaronSimansky No. If the member is sworn in with full voting rights, they're seated for purposes of this market, even if their final right to the seat is referred for investigation. It would count if the House votes to keep them from being sworn in until the investigation ends, or later votes to remove them. I'll updated item 4 to say this explicitly.