Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican). Otherwise this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if, between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, the Senate votes down, or the President withdraws, a nomination formally sent to the Senate to head one of the 15 executive departments (e.g. Attorney General, Secretary of Defense). Names floated or announced but never formally sent to the Senate don't count. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.