Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States imposes a 30% tariff on imports from EU, effective on or before August 1, 2025, and the tariff remains in effect for at least one full day. Verification will be based on official announcements from the U.S. government or reputable news sources confirming the implementation and duration of the tariff.

Background

On July 12, 2025, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union, including Germany, starting August 1, 2025. This decision follows stalled trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU. (cnbc.com)

Considerations

• Potential for Retaliation: The European Union has indicated readiness to implement proportionate countermeasures if the U.S. proceeds with the tariffs. (euronews.com)

• Economic Impact: The German economy, heavily reliant on exports, could face significant challenges if the tariffs are enacted. The Bundesbank has warned that such tariffs could negate projected economic growth for 2026. (reuters.com)

• Ongoing Negotiations: Both the U.S. and EU have expressed a desire to reach a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, which could prevent the tariffs from being implemented. (cnbc.com)

Traders should monitor official communications from both U.S. and EU authorities, as well as reputable news outlets, for updates on the status of the tariffs and any potential resolutions before the specified date.