YES if, by June 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET, the U.S. government formally announces or implements a general global tariff rate of 15% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
NO otherwise.
Resolution notes:
Product-specific or country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities do not count.
Statements of intent without a formal government announcement do not count.
Source hierarchy: White House proclamations/statements, Federal Register, USTR, CBP guidance.
1,000Source context: after the earlier IEEPA tariffs were struck down, Trump shifted to Section 122 and AP reported he had said he'd raise the global rate from 10% to 15% but had not yet done so. This market is about whether the formal move happens before June 1. Source: https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-lawsuit-trade-612954e80e705c48c3ef82e87c6078a3