When will China invade Taiwan?

Question

Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year). This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Not before 2050, followed by 2030-2034 and 2035-2039 are most likely. See the market for live updates (41 traders, as of Mar 14, 2026).