Will a Manifold account betting only "no" on random "yes/no" markets result in a profitable account?

550Ṁ1098

resolved Jan 5

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Starting December 1st, 2023, I will create an account that will only bet "no" on "yes/no" markets. The account will choose the markets to bet on by going to "Browse" and sorting by "Random", then place a 10 mana bet on the first market that pops up. The frequency of bets will be at my leisure.

On Jan 1st 2024, I will screenshot my portfolio profit. If there is a profit, this market resolves "Yes".

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?

2% chance

This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2025, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.

89% chance

Should market creators on manifold avoid ever betting on their own markets?

39% chance

Should Manifold betting be zero sum?

POLL

What is your Manifold betting strategy?

POLL

What types of Manifold markets should users prefer to bet on?

POLL

Is Manifold the best prediction market?

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I searched for accounts that match the description and could not find any obvious evidence. Looked for usernames or bios that said "Yes" and "No" and similar

@DanielKilian if you really did make these accounts show them.

Resolving N/A unless the creator comes back to clarify.

Created a Discord thread to discuss the resolution of this one and a similar question. If you want to join: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/938171760237477998/threads/1192805998566584471

@DanielKilian Did you create this account?

From the latest dump, 47.3% of resolutions were YES, but the average resolution probability was 48.5%. There's likely a tiny amount of profit to be made from that gap.

Yes, assuming it gets the streak bonuses

predictedNO

@Nostr0m bonuses contribute to balance and leagues, but not profit

predictedYES

@tfae Ah I see.. still probably more likely than not I would guess, since probably most questions are whether something will happen, and most hypothetical things don't happen haha