The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote in order to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected.
YES if there is a second round of voting. NO if there is not.
Apr 5, 10:45am: Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections? → [Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
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Second round is already happening for voters living abroad: https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/20/registered-turkish-voters-living-abroad-cast-their-votes-in-election-runoff
Election results will not have Erdogan at >50% (~99.5% sure)
But, I'm saying there's more than 1% chance of shenanigans resulting in the second round not happening. It's a pretty contentious election, and Turkey isn't that stable democratically. This market is about the voting actually occurring.
Currently 95.83% of ballots have been counted.
ERDOĞAN has 49.57% of the votes
KILIÇDAROĞLU has 44.82% of the votes
And the rest have 5.71%
The proportion of the remaining votes for ERDOĞAN would have to be at least 62.18% for him to cross the 50% finish line. I think this market will resolve YES.
@MayMeta upd: 96.15% ballots counted, Erdogan has to win 63.99% of the remaining.
This will be, statistically speaking, extremely improbable.
upd2: 96.49% -- 65.94%
upd3: 96.89% -- 69.00%
upd4: 97.77% -- 78.50%
@DanMan314 I traded here assuming it meant that the first round would be determined inconclusive due to no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, not that there wouldn't be some sort of unforeseen break in the system leading to the absence of a second round. I don't think that will happen, so I will keep my position, but "compound predictions" can be sort of confusing. I do appreciate that you clarified early.