Second round is already happening for voters living abroad: https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/20/registered-turkish-voters-living-abroad-cast-their-votes-in-election-runoff

Registered Turkish voters living abroad cast their votes

As both candidates in Turkey’s presidential election runoff continue campaigning, Turkish citizens living outside the country have started to cast their votes.

Election results will not have Erdogan at >50% (~99.5% sure)
But, I'm saying there's more than 1% chance of shenanigans resulting in the second round not happening. It's a pretty contentious election, and Turkey isn't that stable democratically. This market is about the voting actually occurring.

@Fedor agreed

@Fedor Also agreed

goddam it, never trust "joementum"

Currently 95.83% of ballots have been counted.
ERDOĞAN has 49.57% of the votes
KILIÇDAROĞLU has 44.82% of the votes
And the rest have 5.71%

The proportion of the remaining votes for ERDOĞAN would have to be at least 62.18% for him to cross the 50% finish line. I think this market will resolve YES.

@MayMeta upd: 96.15% ballots counted, Erdogan has to win 63.99% of the remaining.
This will be, statistically speaking, extremely improbable.

upd2: 96.49% -- 65.94%
upd3: 96.89% -- 69.00%
upd4: 97.77% -- 78.50%

It could happen. Especially if nobody gets > 50%.

People interested in Türkiye’s election may also be interested in the results of Thailand’s election:

Since this market is getting attention, I’ll just explicitly clarify that as noted in the description, the second round needs to happen, not just be announced. This won’t resolve until the voting occurs.

@DanMan314 I traded here assuming it meant that the first round would be determined inconclusive due to no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, not that there wouldn't be some sort of unforeseen break in the system leading to the absence of a second round. I don't think that will happen, so I will keep my position, but "compound predictions" can be sort of confusing. I do appreciate that you clarified early.

this Kılıçdaroğlu guy has some major Joementum!