Will RealLies actually bet on all the markets?
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resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

I'm not going to manually check, so resolves NO if someone comments a market that @f hasn't traded after his market closes, plus 1 month. That includes mine, and I'll at least check mine - all the ones that were created as of when I bet on their market.

Otherwise, resolves YES.

I'm going to be maximally nice to @f here, so this is the criteria for a valid market:

  • Owned by someone who traded on his market

  • Opened before the first trade by that person on his market

  • Open the whole period between the owner's trade and his market's close (he shouldn't have to race to get to ones that close soon)

Clarifications:

  • The trades must come from their account, @f.

  • Trades that don't give trader bonuses (like API based ones) won't count either

  • Limit orders do count as long as they give the trader bonus.

  • I reserve the right to modify this criteria in response to actively adversarial behavior by someone to get this to resolve in either direction.

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Resolving NO. I reserve the right to ask for a re-resolve if RealLies gets a burst of motivation this month.

@traders any objections to me resolving this early? I am happy to delay if anyone feels strongly, but I just skimmed and as expected there are many untraded markets that meet the criteria, and RealLies has said they don't intend to try to complete the challenge.

predicted NO

However I will bet on At least a good chunk of Isaac's and Known's markets for their support

bought Ṁ728 of NO

I appologize to those who believed in me, but there's no way I can do this :(

@f You made a really valiant effort! Hard to predict if markets will take off, and this one really signed you up for a lot.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 can you early resolve then?

sold Ṁ5 of YES

@f: You bet on all of my markets almost immediately. I didn't have very many, but I thought that was a good sign. I guess most of the other people had a lot more markets than I did. Do you think this exercise had any effect on your calibration?

predicted NO

@DanielParker Yeah it definately costs mana. I could have made mana if I put more thought into it but with so many markets I figured it was better to plug and chug without reading the questions.

Phew, thanks for saving me from having to think about things @SirSalty!

The timer has begun! According to the description, which I will adhere to as close to the letter as I can, RealLies has essentially until the end of Feb 1 to trade on all the valid markets. A market is valid if:

  • It belongs to a person who traded on his market before its close

  • It was opened before that person's trade on his market

  • It was open the whole period between their trade and Feb 2nd

As mentioned in the description, I'm not going to go and check every single person's markets! I may do some cursory searching or tag some people, but will definitely not be automating an investigation of this. I'll leave this market unresolved for 3 days after Feb 2nd to give time for people to comment untraded markets.

Good luck, RealLies! I hope you pull it off.

I’m closing this market for discussion.

I think extending the close date of the base market to 2025 feels adversarial given the “open the entire period” criteria.

At this point I’m not sure the fairest way to adjudicate. I think most people would say betting on whatever markets happen to still be open a year after their initial bet does not meet a good faith reading of “I’ll bet on all your markets if you trade on this one”. A part of me wants to enforce the initial close date of Dec 31 on the initial market.

However, what makes a fair and consistent betting market might not match what @f initialy intended, and I don’t want to impugne @f‘s impressive efforts so far by resolving NO based on criteria invented without consulting him, either.

Thoughts?

A site admin could spare me this ethical dilemma with a comment on the base market that makes it close immediately tho 🥺 @SirSalty

@DanMan314 I don't rly know what's going on bc too long and didn't read but I commented on that market.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 I'd probably leave it open and when he's done use a script to calculate the number of markets he traded in divided by the number of markets the user had open when this market was created, do some average, say "close enough"

predicted NO

dang they just did all of mine. really committed!

predicted NO

@Stralor BTW @f I appreciate that you really did them all, but maybe for success here you should stick to those that were open before your question? I guess that can be hard to tell, but it will save you hundreds if not thousands of trades going forward

predicted YES

Lol, as a roomie of @f I can say they will do their best

I've just added some clarifications to the description. I've also sold my shares and commit to not betting on this market anymore so I can be neutral in adjudicating what is apparently a little more edge cas-y than I initially thought.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Everyone who traded into my selloff has been compensated

predicted YES

Will this still resolve yes If I bet on the markets with an alt account using the API?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Notably, that doesn't give them unique trader bonuses and costs you mana in the API tax. But might still count, I dunno.

predicted YES

@Joshua Aw sad I didn't know that about the new trader bonuses :(

@f I'm going to make the ruling that no, it doesn't count for both reasons.

I think it stretches the definition of "you" trading on the markets if it comes from an alt. I specified in the description that the trades come from @f, so I'll stick with that.

I'm slightly less sure on API-based trades but leaning no if they don't give trader bonuses, since that's probably what people expected.

predicted NO

Hmmm. This is certainly maximally nice

"Open the whole period between the owner's trade and his market's close (he shouldn't have to race to get to ones that close soon)"

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish essentially he only has to bet on one out of four of my questions under this criteria (is end 2023 a race to do?)

@Dave_9000ish Note that his market could close sooner if an admin comments on it, then the one month timer would start from his markets close and not 2023.

But yes, the criteria is very lenient, and that was intended.

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