This is an attempt to formalize @BTE's market: /BTE/will-the-3rd-intifada-begin-in-2023

Any ONE of the following will be sufficient to resolve this market YES.

• Non-editorial articles from at least 3 of the following major news sources refer to any part of the conflict as an intifada:

  • NYT

  • Washington Post

  • CNN

  • MSNBC

  • BBC

  • Fox News

  • AP

• Wikipedia has an article whose title refers to any part of the conflict as an intifada. I will use discretion on edit wars and reserve the right to ignore this if I suspect foul play.

• Hamas, the Palestinian National Authority, or Hezbollah begin to consistently, across at least 5 statements, refer to their activity as an intifada.

"Part of the conflict" should be taken to mean that any activity related to the events that began with Hamas' invasion of Israel in October 2023 counts. This would include an organized resistance movement that has not yet started at the time of market creation.

This market will resolve YES if any of the above criteria are met. If at the end of 2023 none of the criteria are met, this market resolves NO.