There have been two major uprisings by the Palestinians against the Israeli's since the 1967 Six Day War. This market will resolve YES if the Palestinians engage in mass protests, civil disobedience and other forms of demonstration against the Israeli occupation resulting in sustained and repeated clashes between protestors and the IDF.
1,000
3.00
@BTE This has been closed for a week with the accompanying poll having a clear winner. Ready to resolve?
@BTE One way to resolve this would be to wait for a Wikipedia article on the third intifada to be created and see what they say the start date is.
@Shai The settlers have been able to step up their campaign of ethnic cleansing but little response from West Bank Palestinians.
@JimAusman Harassing a couple people is not really an ethnic cleansing campaign, 2.7M Palestinians remain there and like 100 have fled their homes to other parts of the WB. I don't like the settlement movement but let's not exaggerate.
Yess! this is much better definition. @BTE s question is very confusing, and I don't want to bet on that.
@AdamKalinich This won’t resolve until the end of the year but yes I agree with many of the comments that this does feel like a YES. I might have to outsource the resolution to a trusted user. I am starting to regret creating this 😭
@BTE Based on what? The sources from Wikipedia have been edited out, and the current level of violence in the West Bank is much lower than during Intifidas
@Shump the majority of the violence was in gaza during the second intifada, not sure about the first one. This conflict likely has higher Israeli and Palestinian casualties than the first two intifadas combined.
@aok That was different because back then Israel controlled Gaza. For the same reason, you don't call the 2014 war with Hamas Intifada.
@aok Source for this claim that the majority of the violence was in Gaza? I looked at Wikipedia and if anything it seems there were more attacks in the West Bank. At least GPT-4 says that the majority of the Palestinian casualties were in the West Bank.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_in_the_Second_Intifada
It seems that the civilian casualties were mostly in Green line Israel and the West Bank, not in Gaza.
@nathanwei don't remember what source I found for that 3 weeks ago but having trouble finding it now
If this isn't a Third Intifada, I don't know what is.
Unless you count 2014, in which it would be the Fourth Intifada.
Several news agencies and observers have described the ongoing conflict as the Third Intifada, following the prior Palestinian uprisings of the First and Second Intifadas.[58][59][60]
@BTE maybe now would be a good time to clarify the criteria here. Will you be leaning on how this is referred to in the media or by Palestinian organizations? Or is there some specific intensity/duration that you can add more detail on on what you'd consider to meet the criteria of an intifada?