Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030?
90
2031
36%
chance

Context: https://eos.org/articles/weve-already-seen-category-6-hurricanes-now-scientists-want-to-make-it-official

That scale may not capture the risk posed by the most intense storms as the world warms, the authors wrote. They suggest a sixth category that encompasses storms with winds greater than 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour).

This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a storm somewhere in the world has been designated Category 6 by the NHC.

It resolves NO if no storm has been designated. This includes if the NHC has recognized the expansion of the scale, but no storm meets the criteria. It also includes if a storm exists with wind speeds >192 mph, but the NHC has not recognized "Category 6" as a possible designation.

If the NHC is rebranded or reformed, I'll use any clear successor organization if it exists, or my best discretion on the most canonical US government agency.

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