🏆 TET 2024: State of the Union 🏆

@jacksonpolack and @mint thanks for the feedback. I extended the close date on the Oscars market and will do some thinking about the final structure for how/when these markets resolve. Would love thoughts/ideas, I'm toying with some criteria like "closes the first day in which the top N markets by total traders in the group are resolved".

The leaderboard does seem to have some general unreliability to it too, I'm going to try to give that some thought :/

@mint @jacksonpolack @benshindel @Stralor @AlexanderMiller @TimothyJohnson5c16

/DanMan314/how-and-when-should-tet-markets-clo

Now that the last markets are resolved the leader board is completely different, doesn't resemble the previous top 3 at all. I think it was a mistake to close this early, but I understand your reasoning at wanting to have a defined time period.

@mint I think the leaderboard is being weird right now tbh… I’m not even on it and my profit went UP to like 3.5k after the last couple resolutions 🤷‍♂️

@benshindel I see you in 7th now. And the top two are still the same as what got resolved.

Markets resolve the day after the event's conclusion, unless significant markets are still in contention, in which case they'll be briefly extended at my discretion. This one closes at 5PM PST on Friday, March 8th.

I'd have much preferred you wait for matty to resole the last few markets, I could've gotten first if he'd made a few (unlikely) decisions, oh well. my bad for not asking

@jacksonpolack Im open to feedback on this but I imagine activating this clause in more exceptional circumstances like “the race itself is in doubt because of a delay in vote counting”. I think I need to make it clearer either way so I can’t accidentally play favorites with the resolve time, that’s a fair point.

🏆 THE STATE OF THE UNION IS OVER 🏆

Congratulations to our victors!

• 🥇 @SemioticRivalry

• 🥈 @AlexanderMiller

• 🥉 @jacksonpolack

You'll all get points on the TET 2024 yearly leaderboard! Be sure to check it out and bet who will take the grand prize for the year overall: /DanMan314/who-will-win-tet-2024-resolves-wps

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Check out other upcoming events:

/DanMan314/-tet-2024-who-will-win-the-oscars-r

/DanMan314/m1000-prize-who-will-be-the-underdo

By the way, I did notice the leaderboard seemed pretty wonky at times yesterday. It seems to stabilize to the correct values over time though, and was set for pretty much all of today. I'm hoping Manifold takes a look at it soon.

@DanMan314 Is it just that it only updates every 15 minutes? Or was there something else wrong?

@DanMan314 Also, some of the answers still haven't been resolved yet. I hope that doesn't affect the winners.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I don’t believe so because the swings were quite large, and the group leaderboard at at /browse/ was very different than the one at /leaderboard/

I think almost all major markets have resolved or are priced close to 0/100, so I don’t think they’ll impact resolution. Gotta close sometime though.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah, if the celestial bodies market resolves N/A pretty sure I drop to 3rd.

leaderboard seems bugged

@SemioticRivalry I should have ~9k

@SemioticRivalry thanks for the alpha on the recursive question 😂

@SemioticRivalry It only updates every 15 minutes.

fair warning, I stand to win another 1900 mana on the LGBT question if it resolves yes

Why did nobody have any faith? 😢

@AlexanderMiller

• Each market crowns a Gold, Silver, and Bronze winner from the event leaderboard, resolving to 60%, 30%, 10% respectively (W/P/S).

@nikki second time this has happened to a pretty experienced user, i think it should be in title :P

@nikki Lol, I was betting too quickly trying to catch everything at the end of the speech

@SemioticRivalry I don’t like cluttering up the title too much, but would it help if I changed it to something like “who will be the winners of X on manifold”?

@DanMan314 yeah that'd help! I'm ashamed I "made" the W/P/S resolve system back in the day, at some point knew it was in this market, and still made that mistake

@SemioticRivalry ya I also messed up but luckily didn't buy past Nikki's limit orders at 61