Conditional on AGI being developed before 2029, will there be a dyson sphere around the Sun before 2030?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ6642029
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Has a relatively broad definition of Dyson sphere, including basically any structures that can harvest most of the total energy output of the sun (10% or more), like a Dyson Sphere, a Dyson Swarm, etc.
Resolves N/A if AGI isn't developed by then.
Built in response to this market https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@dcxst I agree, I just saw some people arguing that it's possible with AGI so I wanted to quantify and make them put their money where their mouth was.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2035?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
66% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
8% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
5% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
48% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
63% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
44% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
60% chance