Conditional on AGI being developed before 2029, will there be a dyson sphere around the Sun before 2030? | Manifold

Conditional on AGI being developed before 2029, will there be a dyson sphere around the Sun before 2030?

11

100Ṁ664

2029

6%

chance

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6H

1D

1W

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Has a relatively broad definition of Dyson sphere, including basically any structures that can harvest most of the total energy output of the sun (10% or more), like a Dyson Sphere, a Dyson Swarm, etc.

Resolves N/A if AGI isn't developed by then.

Built in response to this market https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4

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bought Ṁ41 NO

This question is bound to resolve NA, unless you have a very liberal definition of AGI in which case it will resolve NO.

@dcxst I agree, I just saw some people arguing that it's possible with AGI so I wanted to quantify and make them put their money where their mouth was.

@Damin oh haha good call. I thought you might be a dunderhead, just checking

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