Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:
The attempt should involve the attacker pulling a gun or something similar, not just a plan.
Will there be a Assassination attempt on Donald Trumps life before the midterm elections 2026
Resolve December 23 2025.
Sorry this was around the original resolve date.
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https://x.com/BNONews/status/2048435420690547115
His manifesto says he was targeting administration officials, prioritized from highest ranking to lowest. Trump is the highest ranked official and was at the event, therefore this shows he was targeting Trump.
@mods I think this can resolve.
@CourierSix
Of course, it matters whether this counts or not.
Perhaps more specifically was Trump the target or might it have been correspondents or other targets rather than Trump? Trump seems the likely target but you never know what might emerge.
Maybe other traders see other relevant uncertainties? e.g. maybe was a gun pulled or did he merely have it on him? That seem unlikely possibility of no compared to Trump not being target to me but opinions might differ.
@ChristopherRandles just seems obvious that the target was Trump. Anyone else would have been far easier to get at a different time and place, even if you wanted to do a mass attack you could pick a journalist convention without Secret Service protection. I'm something like 99% on it being Trump as target.
@AviEisenberg
Todd Blanche says "preliminary" findings suggest the suspected gunman was targeting members of the Trump administration.
Seems likely Trump was at least one of the 'targeted members of the Trump administration' but it may take some time to confirm this if suspect is not co-operating and continues to do so.
Probability is high but how high? 99% seems higher than I would want to bet on. I was mainly answering what I thought were biggest risks causing probability not to be 100%. Perhaps I could or should have added false flag operation but I very much doubt that has much probability. Time to resolution might also be an issue if creator decides to wait for trial to determine motive.
85% does seem low to me but I, and it seems no one else yet, is willing to push it up to 99%.
@ChristopherRandles It's possible we never get conclusive evidence of motive.
I would note that it's obvious enough that the media is comfortable calling it a Trump assassination attempt.
I wouldn't bet real money at 99 because of liquidity and discount rate concerns but I'm happy to bet play money, just ran out.
Presumably when they indict they're going to say something about motivation. I don't want my fake funds to be tied up for months but might happen.
@CourierSix I just bought and sold it right back. The market creator was last active 8 months ago. It's unclear to me how long it will take for somebody to take control and resolve this.
I don't wish harm to come to anyone under any circumstances. The person heading the USA right now is creating a geopolitical upheaval, the worst part is no one really seems to know who that is, but the ramifications are way beyond anything I ever could have imagined.
This question was posted simply to get some idea where we stood as a people.
Trump made 58 billion dollars off the backs of reg every day Americans.
The grifting gets worse daily, the checks and balances are being dragged through the dirt worse daily.
The pain and suffering is heart breaking, infants lives are a risk...infants. People are losing everything at an astronomical rate.
This is a reality I don't think anyone could have imagined.
I am seeing in real time the changing wave of opinions.
As I discovered today someone posted a somewhat believe able looking document from federal agency, it's fake, but no less antagonist the the things coming from the white house.
What WAS the head of the free world
What's coming next?
What can I/we do....we are doing it, welcome the new age of protest.
"We the people"
@DSalomon Good market you are having here brother! You ever want to chill it out we can be hanging out together. How old? People here lost their minds a little bit, sometimes we are needing to chill it out and have the drinks. Let me know, and if you are needing help banning the sickos I can help you figuring it all out. Toodle doo!
Consider, you have a LOT of people being laid off, with no other real career options, being handed large chunks of cash, and being told nightly by their preferred media outlets and social platforms that it is the 'end of democracy' as they know it.
This is a no-brainer. High probability some lunatic will go off half-cocked.
You don't have to even be politically involved or rooting for any political candidate to see what is obvious even to a blind man.
@DavidAttenborough This is the no-brainer to you? Maybe you should be on some list, you would happen to wear the green overalls and own the plumbing business?
@CryptoNeoLiberalist I don't recall calling for anyone's death, nor do I support such.
I laid out the facts on a prediction site. Maybe you're mad that I labelled someone killing a president a lunatic.
Do the math. X amount of grievance-driven lunatics, with Y amount of money, and Z prospects, in a nation with 330,000,000 people, in a politically unstable nation.
Predicting something is not the same as supporting it. If I predict a comet is gonna fall on europe am I supporting a comet destroying whole cities? Ha, god damn, thats the level of critical thinking you're engaging in right now?
Think before you post next time.
Placeholder.
@DavidAttenborough This is disgusting what you are doing and hiding in the comments. It is the no brainer for you there is assassination attempt on president? Maybe in your no brainier head. Cool it down the titch blud.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Congratulations, you've violated the cease and desist we sent you. Please provide a name and address so my lawyer can have you served lol.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist "Brain rot is the hell of the drug. I can hope you can get the help for it."
I'll get us a two-fer deal. Takes a tard to know one.
@DavidAttenborough Watch that mouth blud, I might be getting you a cancel in society with you having this motor mouth of disgusting word.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Lol 'cancelling'? You libshits don't get to play that card anymore. That cards done. No one gives a shit.
@DavidAttenborough Wow, you are the intelligent member of the society I am sure of it.! I am hoping the tariffs are not effecting the breakfast time, your mother may need to pay the extra for the Great Value fruit loops she is making you and not sure you all can be affording it? Sad.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Lol, actually it was your mom making me breakfast.
Also you should be more respectful, son, haha.