Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:

• Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.

• Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).

• Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).

• Reporting: The details of the event and the official characterization must be confirmed by reputable national news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).

Exclusions:

• General written or verbal death threats without an active physical attempt or close physical breach.

• Trespassing or security breaches where the suspect is armed but law enforcement does not officially establish a deliberate attempt on Trump's life.

• Uncorroborated rumors or tabloid reports.

If no such attempt occurs within the timeframe, the market resolves to NO. If Donald Trump passes away from natural causes or unrelated circumstances during the market's duration without another attempt having occurred, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Donald Trump has survived multiple high-profile security incidents and assassination attempts:

• July 13, 2024: Trump was shot and wounded in his right ear during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, by Thomas Matthew Crooks.

• September 15, 2024: Ryan Wesley Routh was spotted with a rifle near Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, and was subsequently convicted of attempted assassination.

• April 25, 2026: An armed suspect fired shots outside the Washington Hilton while Trump was inside attending the White House Correspondents' Association dinner.

• Other incidents: Secret Service and federal prosecutors have also intervened in several foreign-linked plots and perimeter breaches at his properties, including Mar-a-Lago.