Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?

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YES

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Must use the classic Diplomacy map and rules.

"White-press" means that players can send messages to any other player during the game, but the messages are non-anonymous and tagged by the sending player.

Sep 14, 10:00am: ~~Will an AI that can win a game of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?~~ → Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?

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https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade9097

According to the abstract, this AI "ranked in the top 10% of participants" across 40 online games.

Also does "win" mean a solo victory or a tie?

@MartinRandall In a Diplomacy tournament ties get 1/2 to 1/3 of a the points a solo victory scores. Win means the tournament.

@DAL59 Now I'm not confused, because the question says a single game, but maybe it should say tournament?

How will you resolve this is an AI exists but we don't know if it would win?

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