MANIFOLD
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ100
Apr 1
20%
chance

Resolves YES if Sangdong mine's reported tungsten production accounts for more than 20% of the total non-Chinese tungsten mine supply as of April 1, 2026. Resolution will use production data from Almonty Industries' official reports or industry-verified supply chain analyses published by recognized sources such as USGS or Almonty press releases. Given Sangdong's commercial production start in January 2026 and its target to supply roughly 80% of non-Chinese tungsten, this threshold tests whether it quickly achieves a significant share amid ongoing Chinese export restrictions and global supply shifts. Only primary mine output counts; recycled tungsten or refined APT volumes are excluded. The market evaluates production share exactly on April 1, 2026, not cumulative or forecasted values.

The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.

Source: Article

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