MANIFOLD
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ100
Apr 1
20%
chance

Resolves YES if official production data or authoritative industry reports (e.g., Almonty Industries disclosures, USGS, or recognized market analysts) show Sangdong mine's tungsten output surpasses 20% of the global tungsten supply excluding China on April 1, 2026. This threshold matters because Sangdong's ramp-up is pivotal to reducing Western dependence on Chinese tungsten, especially amid China's export controls effective January 2026. Only primary mine output counts; recycled tungsten or downstream processing volumes are excluded. Resolution will rely on publicly available production figures or credible market assessments published shortly after April 1, 2026.

The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.

Source: Article

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